I feel dirty

Mostly because the point I’m about to make is in agreement (sort of) with reflexively anti-anything-involving-a-Democrat types. Over at Pandagon:

I’ll have to find it, but one of the funniest Bush-era critiques of Clinton’s policies was that we would have grown even faster if not for Clinton. Since there was no demonstrable failure in a large-scale economic sense, Clinton’s policies (particularly the tax cut) were simply an anchor on the speedboat that was the 90s. Luckily, since there was nothing that actually existed to point to, the author could just throw out larger numbers than the 90s economic growth figures, and call it a thesis.

I just finished up Contours of Descent by Robert Pollin, a terrific book. He analyzes the Clinton boom, among other things. His conclusion is that the primary factor behind it was the stock market and the corresponding jump in spending by people whose net worth went up. This jump was almost completely confined to the rich; the top 20% income group jumped up from spending 95.1% of their personal disposable income to spending 104.4%. The next highest income group went up by 1.6%, the other three dropped by .1%, 2.9%, and 2.3%, respectively. So it does follow that if Clinton hadn’t raised taxes on the top 2% or whatever it was, that group may have had more to spend and the economy may have grown even faster. However, it probably wouldn’t have made much difference to most people.

Of course, I may have mangled Pollin’s economics in there somewhere, and I’m not an economist, so take that as you will.


2 Responses to “I feel dirty”

  1. 1 abou

    Eh, I don’t know how to take that. According to the GOP’s arguements, if you tax people they stop spending money. Well, Clinton taxed the rich a lot and they didn’t simply stop spending. The result was a huge amount of money for the government to use, balance the budget, and thus begin the surplus.

    If the economy would have been better why did it not happen during the Reagan era? The economy had a severe drop and then came back up only so high and so fast.

  2. 2 Jeff

    Right. In fact, they increased their spending, as they had more (percieved) wealth. Republicans are obviously wrong when they go off on dire predictions of doom and gloom if we raise taxes even a little, but I think it’s plausible that they would have spent a little more if he hadn’t raised taxes. It’s also likely that the benefit would have been insignificant or that the tax increase was offset somewhere else and didn’t matter, which is what the book I’m currently reading (Perfectly Legal) kind of talks about.

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