Poll: Governor’s race ‘even’

HELENA - The race for governor of Montana is about even, with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Democrat Brian Schweitzer and 41 percent backing Republican Bob Brown, a Lee Newspapers poll last week shows.

Because Schweitzer’s 4 percentage point lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race between the two Whitefish men is considered “about even,” according to Associated Press polling guidelines. More than a month of campaigning remains before the Nov. 2 election.

Alright, I shouldn’t bash the Missoulian for saying the race is even, it’s common for the media to use the errant “if it’s within the margin of error, it’s meaningless” analysis. But normally the media doesn’t emphasize it like this. To point out, the poll shows that there’s an 85% chance Schweitzer is in the lead.

Could Montana really have a Democratic governor? Hasn’t happened for 15 years. Schweitzer’s been campaigning for a long time and it looks like he’s made a strong impression.

I’m more worried about the ban gay marriage amendment, which is favored by a nearly 2:1 margin. The medical marijuana initiative looks like it may pass, though. And the Cyanide mining ban looks like it’ll stay in place as well.

On a completely unrelated subject: Crank Yankers just pranked Scientific American. Pretty good.